Travel Changes?

[disneyholic family]

I think most physicians would agree that you don’t know what you don’t know. Right now we are unaware of so many variables that it’s challenging to make truly informed decisions.

as i've said, the medical authorities where i live consider the situation worrisome in the extreme for which travel bans and quarantines are the very minimum that is required to attempt to buy us time to let the medical system prepare.

Again, all you have to do is look at Italy to understand the severity of the problem.
The number of cases in Italy has exploded, completely swamping their medical system.
The numbers are quite remarkable there.
Italy is now number 2 in the world, after China.
And the day to day growth is exponential.
The number of confirmed cases went up today by a staggering 1,492 taking their total confirmed cases to 7,375.
And the deaths are climbing faster as well, increasing today by 133 for a total of 366.
In addition, Italy currently has a huge number of critical cases (650). Their system cannot handle it, nor could any system in any country.
There is reason to fear this disease.
In another year, it may be we'll look back and think we overreacted.
No way of knowing at this point.
.

 

[Candycane83]

Frances number is very close to Japan’s at this point. And Japan is CDC level two… Wonder why CDC hasn’t given any kind of restriction on France? I tried to ask for a supervisor yesterday when I called ABD and was told it would be a two hour wait. No one ever called me back.

I was just looking at the number of cases around the world and as of right now, US cases surpass Japan now! France is more than double Japan’s numbers!

 

[Networth]

I was at a continuing education dinner tonight on a subject unrelated related to the virus. However, of course the subject of COVID-19 came up. I can say the majority of providers at the dinner felt the media has caused more panic in the general population than is necessary. Every medical professional is going to have a different opinion on the severity of the virus and the fall out. Only time will tell the outcome.

 

[neurosx1983]

Well, I haven't weighed in and wasn't going to-- but if I had an "unlike" option I'd post it! I have no doubt that Disney-- and Tauck, others-- are trying to work through this in the best interests of their clients. They have every incentive to do so. It must be awfully hard to cut through the panic and hysteria and assess this situation carefully and correctly. We are booked on a trip to Jordan and Eygpt in late April with Tauck-- it is still going, as of this posting, and I trust they will not pull the plug unless safety actually requires it.

You're right...ABD is a business and they have to look out for their interests of course. And I've never suggested that they're willingly trying to put families at risk. Of course not. I can't imagine how difficult it must be for the administration of ABD to make decisions on the trips. Cancelling China and Italy is easy...the CDC and US Govt are saying "DONT GO" so its an easy call. What to do about France which is right next door, and has over a thousand cases and CDC hasn't said not to go yet? That's a tougher problem for them. To make matters even harder for them, maybe they don't want to cancel when nothing else in Paris has really closed. Louvre, Versailles, and even DLP are all still open. I can understand if people want to still go on this trip, and I'm sure many people will go unless they cancel. There were 32 people booked including my family. Maybe for a lot of those people, they see this whole COVID thing as a bit of BS and want to move on with life. And maybe for some of them as @sayhello mentioned, they don't have insurance and don't want to lose everything. I want to emphasize if there's anyone on the ABD this week seeing this board, please keep in mind that the situation might be much worse when the ABD is over on the 20th and you might have a hard time getting back home, potentially.

My problem with this trip was that I didn't want to literally walk into a region of the world where cases are going haywire. I thought it irresponsible to literally fly into the eye of a storm. Again, not the UK, but my worry was and always has been France. I didn't want to be in a group traveling around France, going to crowded places like Louvre and Versailles, standing shoulder to shoulder with people jostling to see the mona lisa and be exposed to god knows what. Not worth it for me and my family. Also, I didn't want to be on the other side of the Atlantic and tell my colleagues at work that I'm stuck for 2 weeks. That wouldn't have gone over very well. My wife and I even thought of a plan of going on the ABD to London and basically leaving the group when they go to France...but we decided that was kind of dumb.

My problem with ABD is their lack of communication and attitude that nothing is going on. All is proceeding as usual. Nothing to see here...move on. I got a total of two emails from ABD and all they both said was "let us know if you've been to China or Italy in the last 2 weeks"

And I get what you're saying about hysteria. Hysteria doesn't help any situation. My point to ABD when I said "look, I'm a physician and I'm saying it doesn't seem safe to travel to France" was not to rub it in anyone's face that I'm a doctor...but to convey to them that this is my profession and I'm saying its serious. I think if I weren't a physician, and a physician told me that they themselves are feeling uncomfortable about traveling to a certain country, I would be a bit freaked out.
On a side note, almost all of my colleagues at work (other physicians) have literally told me I'm nuts to even think about going to Europe this week. That's just my experience.

Anyway, to each their own. I think one thing is clear. We are all Disney fans and we all on this board have a certain amount of affection of ABD. That's without a doubt. I'm incredibly bummed out that I'm not going on this trip this week. You guys dont know how much I had researched. Including listening to the podcasts from Pete/John/Kevin about both of their trips multiple times!
But its' important for us to be smart and not fall into the trap of thinking Disney can do no harm. They're a business after all. We just have to do what's right for our families.

 

[rhinodadz]

@neurosx1983 My wife and I are also on the London/Paris adventure this week. We haven't given any thought to cancelling. We are in our 50s, in reasonably good health and don't fall into any of the high risk groups for COVID-19.

I do feel that the media frenzy is overblown and that the reported death rate is likely overstated as it is probable that there are a large number of undiagnosed and unreported cases which would change that percentage. Like many things in life the decision to go on this trip is a calculated risk. For us, it's worth it based on what is known at this moment. It's clearly not for you and your family and I absolutely respect that.

I wouldn't be too harsh in criticizing ABD for what you deem to be a lack of communication. It is absolutely not in Disney's interst to have 30 or 40 folks quarantined. There is no doubt in my mind that they are frantically working on contingency plans and will wait as long as possible to pull the trigger in an effort to give us the adventure we expect. Same way the cruise line operates during hurricane season.

If you chose to cancel and travel elsewhere I wish you safe travels, otherwise I'll look forward to meeting you in a few days.

 

[neurosx1983]

@neurosx1983 My wife and I are also on the London/Paris adventure this week. We haven't given any thought to cancelling. We are in our 50s, in reasonably good health and don't fall into any of the high risk groups for COVID-19.

I do feel that the media frenzy is overblown and that the reported death rate is likely overstated as it is probable that there are a large number of undiagnosed and unreported cases which would change that percentage. Like many things in life the decision to go on this trip is a calculated risk. For us, it's worth it based on what is known at this moment. It's clearly not for you and your family and I absolutely respect that.

I wouldn't be too harsh in criticizing ABD for what you deem to be a lack of communication. It is absolutely not in Disney's interst to have 30 or 40 folks quarantined. There is no doubt in my mind that they are frantically working on contingency plans and will wait as long as possible to pull the trigger in an effort to give us the adventure we expect. Same way the cruise line operates during hurricane season.

If you chose to cancel and travel elsewhere I wish you safe travels, otherwise I'll look forward to meeting you in a few days.

Awesome! I'm glad I finally found another soul on this thread that was on the trip...

Well I hope you're right that its overblown. To each their own, but from my perspective using straight facts from CDC/WHO, the situation in France looks worrisome at best, dire at worst. They just announced a few hours ago that any gatherings of 1000 people or more are banned. My concern with France is the rate at which bad news is coming out.

Anyway, hope you and your wife enjoy this trip if it goes. I'm going to be going through the depressing slog of cancelling all of the really nice dinner reservations in London and Paris that I made

But I've got a smile on my face when I think of that mai tai that awaits...

 

[CaliforniaGirl09]

You're right...ABD is a business and they have to look out for their interests of course. And I've never suggested that they're willingly trying to put families at risk. Of course not. I can't imagine how difficult it must be for the administration of ABD to make decisions on the trips. Cancelling China and Italy is easy...the CDC and US Govt are saying "DONT GO" so its an easy call. What to do about France which is right next door, and has over a thousand cases and CDC hasn't said not to go yet? That's a tougher problem for them. To make matters even harder for them, maybe they don't want to cancel when nothing else in Paris has really closed. Louvre, Versailles, and even DLP are all still open. I can understand if people want to still go on this trip, and I'm sure many people will go unless they cancel. There were 32 people booked including my family. Maybe for a lot of those people, they see this whole COVID thing as a bit of BS and want to move on with life. And maybe for some of them as @sayhello mentioned, they don't have insurance and don't want to lose everything. I want to emphasize if there's anyone on the ABD this week seeing this board, please keep in mind that the situation might be much worse when the ABD is over on the 20th and you might have a hard time getting back home, potentially.

My problem with this trip was that I didn't want to literally walk into a region of the world where cases are going haywire. I thought it irresponsible to literally fly into the eye of a storm. Again, not the UK, but my worry was and always has been France. I didn't want to be in a group traveling around France, going to crowded places like Louvre and Versailles, standing shoulder to shoulder with people jostling to see the mona lisa and be exposed to god knows what. Not worth it for me and my family. Also, I didn't want to be on the other side of the Atlantic and tell my colleagues at work that I'm stuck for 2 weeks. That wouldn't have gone over very well. My wife and I even thought of a plan of going on the ABD to London and basically leaving the group when they go to France...but we decided that was kind of dumb.

My problem with ABD is their lack of communication and attitude that nothing is going on. All is proceeding as usual. Nothing to see here...move on. I got a total of two emails from ABD and all they both said was "let us know if you've been to China or Italy in the last 2 weeks"

And I get what you're saying about hysteria. Hysteria doesn't help any situation. My point to ABD when I said "look, I'm a physician and I'm saying it doesn't seem safe to travel to France" was not to rub it in anyone's face that I'm a doctor...but to convey to them that this is my profession and I'm saying its serious. I think if I weren't a physician, and a physician told me that they themselves are feeling uncomfortable about traveling to a certain country, I would be a bit freaked out.
On a side note, almost all of my colleagues at work (other physicians) have literally told me I'm nuts to even think about going to Europe this week. That's just my experience.

Anyway, to each their own. I think one thing is clear. We are all Disney fans and we all on this board have a certain amount of affection of ABD. That's without a doubt. I'm incredibly bummed out that I'm not going on this trip this week. You guys dont know how much I had researched. Including listening to the podcasts from Pete/John/Kevin about both of their trips multiple times!
But its' important for us to be smart and not fall into the trap of thinking Disney can do no harm. They're a business after all. We just have to do what's right for our families.

I totally agree. As mentioned earlier in this thread, I have boots on the ground in the UK right now, and I'm watching the more European focused news reports. With what is happening in Italy right now, I think it's hard to argue that this is overblown. It sounds like a confusion nightmare the other night as travelers raced to get out of Dodge to avoid being locked down.

IMO if ABD was working in its clients best interest (and not $$$), they would be allowing people to cancel if they wanted. If some travelers are still comfortable going on the trip, let them make that decision for their family.

Even if people aren't personally concerned with exposure risk, the potential for travel disruption is big. Most of the reports I've seen are suggesting this is going to peak during Spring Break. Don't get me wrong, I think the US is way underreporting (and purposefully not testing) the number of cases and exposure risk might not be all that different in parts of Europe than it is in parts of the US. But when traveling you are at the mercy of a different government and different rules as well as getting stuck somewhere that is not home. There is only so much ABD can do.

@morgan98 I hope your family is hanging in there and your husband's travel wasn't impacted by the shutdown.

 

[DisneyWishes14]

I totally agree. As mentioned earlier in this thread, I have boots on the ground in the UK right now, and I'm watching the more European focused news reports. With what is happening in Italy right now, I think it's hard to argue that this is overblown. It sounds like a confusion nightmare the other night as travelers raced to get out of Dodge to avoid being locked down.

IMO if ABD was working in its clients best interest (and not $$$), they would be allowing people to cancel if they wanted. If some travelers are still comfortable going on the trip, let them make that decision for their family.

Even if people aren't personally concerned with exposure risk, the potential for travel disruption is big. Most of the reports I've seen are suggesting this is going to peak during Spring Break. Don't get me wrong, I think the US is way underreporting (and purposefully not testing) the number of cases and exposure risk might not be all that different in parts of Europe than it is in parts of the US. But when traveling you are at the mercy of a different government and different rules as well as getting stuck somewhere that is not home. There is only so much ABD can do.

@morgan98 I hope your family is hanging in there and your husband's travel wasn't impacted by the shutdown.

You've hit the nail on the head for me. We have required minor medical care in other countries and boy oh boy was it an eye-opener in terms of quality and access to medical care. Particularly in countries with a high rate of confirmed infection right now - I, personally, don't want to overburden their system, as a tourist, when their own citizenry may need a hospital bed, ventilator, etc. I also agree they are underreporting and under testing, not just in the US, but in many other countries that may have less access to testing kits than we do here in the US.

 

[CaliforniaGirl09]

You've hit the nail on the head for me. We have required minor medical care in other countries and boy oh boy was it an eye-opener in terms of quality and access to medical care. Particularly in countries with a high rate of confirmed infection right now - I, personally, don't want to overburden their system, as a tourist, when their own citizenry may need a hospital bed, ventilator, etc. I also agree they are underreporting and under testing, not just in the US, but in many other countries that may have less access to testing kits than we do here in the US.

Great point about the burdened medical care. That's one of the things that has been on the news--apparently Milan has one of the best regarded medical systems but it is being seriously overburdened. The phone number to call for possible COVID 19 cases here in the UK has been overburdened as well with hour long waits. I forgot to mention one other issue that I didn't anticipate--the fear of catching a regular cold while on vacation. My daughter and husband seem to always catch something when we travel and having a cold right now would be a nightmare--not only with confusion of whether it's COVID, but also being sick in public and/or when trying to fly home. Can you imagine having a cough right now at an airport/public transport or as part of a tour group? Not fun.

 

[disneyholic family]

Great point about the burdened medical care. That's one of the things that has been on the news--apparently Milan has one of the best regarded medical systems but it is being seriously overburdened. The phone number to call for possible COVID 19 cases here in the UK has been overburdened as well with hour long waits. I forgot to mention one other issue that I didn't anticipate--the fear of catching a regular cold while on vacation. My daughter and husband seem to always catch something when we travel and having a cold right now would be a nightmare--not only with confusion of whether it's COVID, but also being sick in public and/or when trying to fly home. Can you imagine having a cough right now at an airport/public transport or as part of a tour group? Not fun.

this is what i wrote in a different thread:

this is high risk for everyone age 60 and up (although our critical patient is 38 years old)..
but the point isn't only those who catch it and become critical.
the point is, your medical care system will be swamped, leaving your regular patients out in the cold.
Hospitals can only handle so many patients. In a pinch, they can add capacity, but there is a limit.
What you're seeing in northern Italy is a medical system that has gone way past its limits.
This is bad not only for those who catch this coronavirus, but for everyone else who might need medical care in the normal course of events.
Medical systems are built for day to day needs with a bit of builtin slack, not for something as overwhelming as this.

.

 

[neurosx1983]

You’re totally right. That’s why we chose Hawaii, just to stay in the United States. Even though it’s actually a longer flight from here than Europe.

 

[NashSmartGuy]

Putting all of this in perspective . . .

Per the CDC, over 20,000 people have died of the plain old flu in the US alone since October 1, 2019. Over 34,000,000 people in the US have been infected with the flu. Over 340,000 hospitalizations. We have a vaccine for the flu (which wasn't particularly effective this year).

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Compare this with WHO numbers of 105,586 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the WORLD. It looks like 3,584 deaths in the WORLD.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0308-sitrep-48-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=16f7ccef_4
Many more people have the flu and have died from it in the US than have COVID-19 in the entire world. And the media isn't causing a panic about the flu, even though the numbers are far worse than COVID-19.

 

[disneyholic family]

Putting all of this in perspective . . .

Per the CDC, over 20,000 people have died of the plain old flu in the US alone since October 1, 2019. Over 34,000,000 people in the US have been infected with the flu. Over 340,000 hospitalizations. We have a vaccine for the flu (which wasn't particularly effective this year).

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Compare this with WHO numbers of 105,586 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the WORLD. It looks like 3,584 deaths in the WORLD.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0308-sitrep-48-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=16f7ccef_4
Many more people have the flu and have died from it in the US than have COVID-19 in the entire world. And the media isn't causing a panic about the flu, even though the numbers are far worse than COVID-19.

yes, and the hospitals are still full of flu patients, which is why countries are trying to delay the cororna outbreak as long as they can and at least until the flu season has passed and hospital beds open up.
this is all about the availability of medical facilities.

.

 

[lovetotravel]

@neurosx1983 Enjoy Hawaii! We are also a physician ABD family and we have a similar opinion.

I understand all the debate about COVID-19 vs flu vs media. I get the statistics. But then why is the WHO, CDC and the US Dept of State involved and issuing do not travel advisories if COVID-19 was not a big deal?

 

[JandT'smom]

You’re totally right. That’s why we chose Hawaii, just to stay in the United States. Even though it’s actually a longer flight from here than Europe.

Great choice enjoy!!!

 

[morgan98]

Putting all of this in perspective . . .

Per the CDC, over 20,000 people have died of the plain old flu in the US alone since October 1, 2019. Over 34,000,000 people in the US have been infected with the flu. Over 340,000 hospitalizations. We have a vaccine for the flu (which wasn't particularly effective this year).

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Compare this with WHO numbers of 105,586 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the WORLD. It looks like 3,584 deaths in the WORLD.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0308-sitrep-48-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=16f7ccef_4
Many more people have the flu and have died from it in the US than have COVID-19 in the entire world. And the media isn't causing a panic about the flu, even though the numbers are far worse than COVID-19.

I too am a numbers person and I agree that on paper, maybe it doesn't necessarily add up.

But until you have personally experienced how seriously it is being treated, I think it is easy to just look at the numbers.

Entire countries would not be tanking economies and making people pass vigorously health screenings before boarding planes.

This issue has become bigger than the numbers. We can debate why that may be. But right now travel to certain countries is hard to support.

 

[JandT'smom]

You're right...ABD is a business and they have to look out for their interests of course. And I've never suggested that they're willingly trying to put families at risk. Of course not. I can't imagine how difficult it must be for the administration of ABD to make decisions on the trips. Cancelling China and Italy is easy...the CDC and US Govt are saying "DONT GO" so its an easy call. What to do about France which is right next door, and has over a thousand cases and CDC hasn't said not to go yet? That's a tougher problem for them. To make matters even harder for them, maybe they don't want to cancel when nothing else in Paris has really closed. Louvre, Versailles, and even DLP are all still open. I can understand if people want to still go on this trip, and I'm sure many people will go unless they cancel. There were 32 people booked including my family. Maybe for a lot of those people, they see this whole COVID thing as a bit of BS and want to move on with life. And maybe for some of them as @sayhello mentioned, they don't have insurance and don't want to lose everything. I want to emphasize if there's anyone on the ABD this week seeing this board, please keep in mind that the situation might be much worse when the ABD is over on the 20th and you might have a hard time getting back home, potentially.

My problem with this trip was that I didn't want to literally walk into a region of the world where cases are going haywire. I thought it irresponsible to literally fly into the eye of a storm. Again, not the UK, but my worry was and always has been France. I didn't want to be in a group traveling around France, going to crowded places like Louvre and Versailles, standing shoulder to shoulder with people jostling to see the mona lisa and be exposed to god knows what. Not worth it for me and my family. Also, I didn't want to be on the other side of the Atlantic and tell my colleagues at work that I'm stuck for 2 weeks. That wouldn't have gone over very well. My wife and I even thought of a plan of going on the ABD to London and basically leaving the group when they go to France...but we decided that was kind of dumb.

My problem with ABD is their lack of communication and attitude that nothing is going on. All is proceeding as usual. Nothing to see here...move on. I got a total of two emails from ABD and all they both said was "let us know if you've been to China or Italy in the last 2 weeks"

And I get what you're saying about hysteria. Hysteria doesn't help any situation. My point to ABD when I said "look, I'm a physician and I'm saying it doesn't seem safe to travel to France" was not to rub it in anyone's face that I'm a doctor...but to convey to them that this is my profession and I'm saying its serious. I think if I weren't a physician, and a physician told me that they themselves are feeling uncomfortable about traveling to a certain country, I would be a bit freaked out.
On a side note, almost all of my colleagues at work (other physicians) have literally told me I'm nuts to even think about going to Europe this week. That's just my experience.

Anyway, to each their own. I think one thing is clear. We are all Disney fans and we all on this board have a certain amount of affection of ABD. That's without a doubt. I'm incredibly bummed out that I'm not going on this trip this week. You guys dont know how much I had researched. Including listening to the podcasts from Pete/John/Kevin about both of their trips multiple times!
But its' important for us to be smart and not fall into the trap of thinking Disney can do no harm. They're a business after all. We just have to do what's right for our families.

Just chiming in Had a Doctor from Mayo Clinic in Rochester tell us Do Not Go... I will listen to medical professionals way before I trust ABD on this. Europe will be there in a few months or next year.

 

[lovetotravel]

Just chiming in Had a Doctor from Mayo Clinic in Rochester tell us Do Not Go... I will listen to medical professionals way before I trust ABD on this. Europe will be there in a few months or next year.

Exactly!

Why are countries locking down cities and threatening jail if citizens don't comply, why are we quarantining people, why do we have ships by CA and FL not able to dock? Do we do this for the flu?

 

[vakamalua]

It's not just that you and your family could get sick w coronavirus or get caught in a quarantine situation. Even if you are not in a high risk population, you could still get infected, have little or no symptoms and them become a carrier while traveling and when you return home. Thus becoming part of the community spread problem.

ABD needs to develop a customer friendly policy or they risk losing future business. The Disney-name only goes so far.

 

[Cliffside]

I still can’t believe that ABD has not relaxed their cancellation policies at all. Especially since the state department and the cdc has warned Americans against traveling by cruise. We are booked on the first Danube River cruise and would like the flexibility that has been offered to the early DCL European itineraries. This has become more stressful after seeing the river cruise in Egypt that has COVID-19.