I think people just look at the high upfront cost of VGC and balk. Fair enough, the initial buy in is high, however let's compare the two.
VGC
Years remaining: 37
Buy in: Let's use your buy in at 275 because that seems reasonable.
2023 annual dues: $8.04
275/37 + 8.04 is giving you a per point cost $15.47. This isn't factoring in dues increases over time.
Let's take the third Tuesday in Nov, for example, which is 20 points a night. Total stay at Grand Californian is $309.44
Hotel stay with Disney for a standard view hotel room is $837.72 for that same night.
VDH
Years remaining 50
Buy in: we'll use your 180
Dues: $9.06
Transient tax for 2023: 2.73 per point.
180/50 + 9.06 + 2.73 gives you a per point cost of $15.39. This isn't including dues and transient tax increases over time.
Let's take our example 3rd Tuesday in November which is 20 points for a standard studio. So, $308.80 per night.
A cash stay in a standard room at Disneyland Hotel is going to cost you $629.46 for the same date.
As the numbers illustrate, VGC is the superior deal and continues to be superior value in spite of the initial high buy in. That's why the resale market went nuts after its announcement.
Now there are other arguments for VDH including emotional value and I would completely understand that. Its just not better value.
I'd go a step further and adjust your math a little bit to account for roughly equivalent views to highlight another inequity, the
point chart and view. There are no standard view rooms in VGC, I'd say they range from partial to pool in terms of GCH categories. For the night in question, assuming you actually meant the second Tuesday in November (3rd Tuesday precedes Thanksgiving and rates don't match your post):
DLH deluxe view: 687.96
VDH preferred view: 851.76
VDH preferred view: 23 points, 353.97
% off DLH: 48.6%
% off VDH: 58.4%
GCH partial view: 988.65
GCH pool view: 1082.25
VGC: 20 points, 309.44
% off partial: 68.7%
% off pool: 71.6%
As you can see, while this isn't always the case, for the bulk of the year VDH preferred view costs more points than VGC and when this is taken into account, the actual cash cost for VGC per night is cheaper at 275pp than VDH at 180pp. Then you look at the cash value that Disney places on these rooms, and the gap grows further. Finally, there exists the question if the ~$100 per night premium Disney places on VDH over DLH is actually worth it, and that comes down to personal preference. And of course, these are rack rates, which are often discounted 20-30%, so if I actually prefer DLH deluxe to VDH preferred and can snag it at 30% for 481.57...
Edit: sorry, in a math mood. To put this another way... If you were to shoot for an equal percentage off VGC in this scenario to VDH (58.4%), being generous and basing this on the partial view the per night cost you'd be after is 411.28. Divide by 20 points and you've got a 20.56pp cost. Subtract out your 8.04 for dues, multiply by 37 remaining years and...
You're left with a staggering 463.38 per point. That's the buy in for VGC at which it provides equal value to this room, on this night at VDH, assuming the $180 buy in price (which I thought was 188 but whatever). So yeah.
But of course, the numbers are different at different times of year and at different room categories. But they aren't going to make up for a 283pp value gap, even if this is an extreme case (is it?).
The last argument for value would be the ability to use points at other properties and that simply doesn't hold water. No one is using VGC points elsewhere, and very few people are going to be able to book VGC with VDH points and certainly not consistently. The only scenario where this might hold up is if these points are your ONLY points. In which case, I'd suggest better options are to buy both resorts or if the intention is to use them at WDW, buy a resale contract where you want to stay or cheap SAPs.
Despite all this, I still find myself thinking that at some point we'll add a little VDH. But value will not be the motivator.