ROFR Thread January to March 2019 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[The Jackal]

So if you are a recent resale purchaser who has not purchased 75 points direct from Disney, are you a DVC member who is ineligible?

DVC members are anyone who owns direct or resale. Resale owners they just get no member benefits

 

[Xalthon]

This seemed as good as place as any to ask.... who does the Drunken Monkey contact after it makes its decision to waive or take? Does the Monkey contact the listing broker, the title company, or the buyer/seller? Along those lines, if I wanted to check with anyone on a ROFR status, would I contact the broker or the title company?

 

[crvetter]

This seemed as good as place as any to ask.... who does the Drunken Monkey contact after it makes its decision to waive or take? Does the Monkey contact the listing broker, the title company, or the buyer/seller? Along those lines, if I wanted to check with anyone on a ROFR status, would I contact the broker or the title company?

Both of those answers would be the broker.

 

[bebec22]

Drunken monkey works on weekends when he feels like it. I had a contract pass on a Sunday, 12/24. Sorry.

Maybe the drunken monkey will be extra drunk this weekend from St. Patrick’s Day festivities and feel like spreading luck around to all of us who are waiting!

 

[pangyal]

Updated

 

[nangosix]

i have had my first 2 attempts at Resale taken. Broker is trying to convince me with email, stats, etc. that I am pricing low and that's why they are getting ROFR'd. I told him I have seen plenty on the boards that have passed (AKV $100 to $110) in a lower price range, and he said "beware of what you read on the boards....we have 3000 sale in the past month, so our numbers are solid".....that may be, but I still think it is luck of the draw, and perhaps a little about the use year we went for (feb or March)

I just had my contract pass ROFR at 107.50 per point, at AKV with 140 points, March use year with 140 available immediately. Offer what you are comfortable with.

 

[Bobb_o]

I just offered $115 for 120 points. I'm scared of it not passing so I thought I'd come in a little higher than the ~$110 which seems to be around the limit.

 

[MB333]

Day 10 since our BRV contract was sent to ROFR. At this time there has been no word from the drunken monkey, he seems to be very elusive but we have heard tell of his erratic behavior from the locals. The crews tries their best to past the time with work and other trivial endeavors but morale is low. If only we could get word to the mouse to send some magic pixie dust. Will send word of any encounters with the drunken monkey.

 

[tommygunn]

Like some opinions please. Just agreed to purchase a 405 point BLT for $135pp. All points available in 19, 20, etc. Based upon everything I'm seeing I think I'm on the high side for a large contract and am considering not going forward. What say ye? Thanks in advance fellow nerds!

 

[carli_h]

Like some opinions please. Just agreed to purchase a 405 point BLT for $135pp. All points available in 19, 20, etc. Based upon everything I'm seeing I think I'm on the high side for a large contract and am considering not going forward. What say ye? Thanks in advance fellow nerds!

I don’t think it’s particularly on the high side, in that it was a guaranteed ROFR pass. There’s been a couple of very low contracts pass recently but they were not straightforward (one seller was in financial difficulties and the other had holding points).

I would say it was a fair price. You may have found one with a few more $ off per point, but isn’t that always the case? Good luck with whatever you chose to do.

 

[Aussie RJ]

Like some opinions please. Just agreed to purchase a 405 point BLT for $135pp. All points available in 19, 20, etc. Based upon everything I'm seeing I think I'm on the high side for a large contract and am considering not going forward. What say ye? Thanks in advance fellow nerds!

Do you need 405 points? Does it suit your plans and budget? If yes then go for it. It’s well below direct value..

 

[texanlawyer]

Like some opinions please. Just agreed to purchase a 405 point BLT for $135pp. All points available in 19, 20, etc. Based upon everything I'm seeing I think I'm on the high side for a large contract and am considering not going forward. What say ye? Thanks in advance fellow nerds!

That seems like a reasonable price. I wouldn't be too fussed about getting the absolute lowest dollar/point possible since there are so many considerations that go into what price people agree to buy/sell at. Also, who knows whether it will get ROFR'ed. It's a large enough contract where I think it's unlikely, but it could happen. That being said, if you're having second thoughts or it exceeds your budget, then don't do it. I think too many people rush into DVC without considering all the costs and limitations of owning a DVC contract. You should only commit to spending $55K upfront (plus ongoing fees) if it absolutely makes sense for you and your family.

 

[tommygunn]

Do you need 405 points? Does it suit your plans and budget? If yes then go for it. It’s well below direct value..

Actually I’d like a billion points so I could live there forever but I’m not sure I could swing that one.

 

[MB_01]

Actually I’d like a billion points so I could live there forever but I’m not sure I could swing that one.

405 sounds like a good start to me! Even if you got another $5 off it’s only 2k on a 54000 purchase that’s going to last you another 40 years. It’s way better than if it was a car you were only going to keep for 5 years.

 

[Rush]

Day 6 of waiting, never thought it would be this stressful waiting to see if someone would let me spend this kind of money on their product!

Couple of questions for y’all that will help occupy my mind.

1. Is there any data or opinion to suggest the outcome of ROFR is affected by the contract being add-on points vs. a new DVC (resale) member?

2. Is there any data or opinion on the brokerage company your contract went through has any impact on the outcome on ROFR?

Or is it just numbers and a little bit of (bad)luck?

Lastly, anyone know the drunken moneky’s drink of choice, and his address? Asking for a friend!

 

[Dandreta]

Hi all -

I have been watching this thread as I impatiently wait for my ROFR to come back. We made an offer on AKL (160 points, June UY, 85 points from 2018 for $103). But I have been running regressions on the data from this site and geeking out with the data

My speculation based on AKL analysis is that the striped contracts are going faster because of the seller fee aspect. Disney can take a contract that has 2019’fees paid, restock it and resell it and then get the new buyer to pay 2019 fees again. Making the price an additional $6-$7 a point cheaper.

So I started analyzing with the assumed buyer credit and dropped the closing costs (assuming Disney closes on their own). If you take your total cost less the buyer fees (there are some other less significant factors like UY) but take your Price per point times #of points MINUS seller paid costs. Then divide by number of points The “take price” for AKL was $100.38. Higher for Feb use year and less for others. I think I’m missing data like seller agency (the fees by each agency differ which would impact price per point) but it’s directional

If anyone is interested I can run regressions on some
Other resorts to see if I can find a similar “take” number

 

[Dandreta]

Replying to my own post here to point out that if Disney buys when 2019 points are paid AND it is still technically 2018 use year then they can then sell and get 2x maintenance fees making it even MORE valuable for them

Hi all -

I have been watching this thread as I impatiently wait for my ROFR to come back. We made an offer on AKL (160 points, June UY, 85 points from 2018 for $103). But I have been running regressions on the data from this site and geeking out with the data

My speculation based on AKL analysis is that the striped contracts are going faster because of the seller fee aspect. Disney can take a contract that has 2019’fees paid, restock it and resell it and then get the new buyer to pay 2019 fees again. Making the price an additional $6-$7 a point cheaper.

So I started analyzing with the assumed buyer credit and dropped the closing costs (assuming Disney closes on their own). If you take your total cost less the buyer fees (there are some other less significant factors like UY) but take your Price per point times #of points MINUS seller paid costs. Then divide by number of points The “take price” for AKL was $100.38. Higher for Feb use year and less for others. I think I’m missing data like seller agency (the fees by each agency differ which would impact price per point) but it’s directional

If anyone is interested I can run regressions on some
Other resorts to see if I can find a similar “take” number

 

[Bing Showei]

Replying to my own post here to point out that if Disney buys when 2019 points are paid AND it is still technically 2018 use year then they can then sell and get 2x maintenance fees making it even MORE valuable for them

Negative. ADs are billed by calendar year, not UY. So a contract still in its 2018 UY will be only paying prorated 2019 ADs based on contract signing date.

I also wouldn’t discount UY too quickly. Many have observed UY to provide a more logical determining factor with ROFR than based on price alone.

 

[Dandreta]

I am not discounting use year AT ALL. I have significant P values for certain use years that impact price taken significantly. Posting that here was WAY too confusing without being able to post a table so I tried to keep it simple as a total resort price


And I am 100% unaware by Disney’s antics on how they bill so will admit wholeheartedly that it’s assumption only. I just know when we bought one of our direct contract last May with a Dec use year we paid maintenance fees on our 2017 and 2018 points. Maybe I misread our paperwork. I’m a numbers person so I can crunch numbers. I’m not a DVC genius buy ANY means. I could very well be connecting dots that shouldn’t be connected but just trying to add some insight to the board thinking others may find it interesting

My bad if these are inaccurate assumptions

Negative. ADs are billed by calendar year, not UY. So a contract still in its 2018 UY will be only paying prorated 2019 ADs based on contract signing date.

I also wouldn’t discount UY too quickly. Many have observed UY to provide a more logical determining factor with ROFR than based on price alone.

 

[Bing Showei]

I am not discounting use year AT ALL. I have significant P values for certain use years that impact price taken significantly. Posting that here was WAY too confusing without being able to post a table so I tried to keep it simple as a total resort price

Copy that. I took “there are some other less significant factors like UY” to mean you didn’t think it was an important determinant.

Dec UY is a great UY to buy direct for exactly the reason I outlined above. Buying on Nov 30th of 2019, one would receive 2018 UY points as well as paying roughly 1/12th of the 2019 ADs with all of 2019 UY points coming the next day.