How Worried Should We Be?

[Christine]

I found this on another site a visit. It's not "facts" just someone who kind of watches the numbers as a hobby and thinks it's going to be hard to visualize a spike (if there is one) based on all of the various locations, young age of protesters, and so on. It makes a little bit of sense to me as I read it although some of it is a little off. But I think it's correct in that it's going to be hard to see a concentrate spike in any one place. Now if contract tracing were well established, we could see how much tied back to the protests.

Who dies from COVID? Old people. And who is protesting? NOT old people.

Who gets SICK from COVID? All people. But few young show symptoms.
Who gets TESTED from COVID? Generally people with symptoms.
How many get tested? As many and as fast as the tests allow...

In other words - the only spike you could possibly see is an increase in positive tests, matching the rate of testing, which is already rising at a pretty good clip. About 20,000 a day positive confirmed tests we add. Lots more aren't positive. It means we test 50K a day or 200K a day or .. .A LOT.

To make that number move - much - you'd have to administer lots and lots more tests - that ain't gonna happen. But if it did - and 100,000 YOUNG people just got infected - how many show symptoms and get tested? Few.

A spike at all would appear in the number of dead vulnerable relatives to these young people, a month or two from now. Kids don't care if they're sick. But they just killed gramma to throw some bricks through a window. How many "vulnerable" people will die as a result? No idea. But even if it were 1000, they would not be on the same day, and we're still burying 700-1100 EVERY day, so it will be a hard spike to notice, in any event.

 

[mjkacmom]

I found this on another site a visit. It's not "facts" just someone who kind of watches the numbers as a hobby and thinks it's going to be hard to visualize a spike (if there is one) based on all of the various locations, young age of protesters, and so on. It makes a little bit of sense to me as I read it although some of it is a little off. But I think it's correct in that it's going to be hard to see a concentrate spike in any one place. Now if contract tracing were well established, we could see how much tied back to the protests.

Who dies from COVID? Old people. And who is protesting? NOT old people.

Who gets SICK from COVID? All people. But few young show symptoms.
Who gets TESTED from COVID? Generally people with symptoms.
How many get tested? As many and as fast as the tests allow...

In other words - the only spike you could possibly see is an increase in positive tests, matching the rate of testing, which is already rising at a pretty good clip. About 20,000 a day positive confirmed tests we add. Lots more aren't positive. It means we test 50K a day or 200K a day or .. .A LOT.

To make that number move - much - you'd have to administer lots and lots more tests - that ain't gonna happen. But if it did - and 100,000 YOUNG people just got infected - how many show symptoms and get tested? Few.

A spike at all would appear in the number of dead vulnerable relatives to these young people, a month or two from now. Kids don't care if they're sick. But they just killed gramma to throw some bricks through a window. How many "vulnerable" people will die as a result? No idea. But even if it were 1000, they would not be on the same day, and we're still burying 700-1100 EVERY day, so it will be a hard spike to notice, in any event.

I’m actually surprised at how many people my age got very sick from COViD. My county has the worst stats in my state. https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/documents/topics/NCOV/COVID_Confirmed_Case_Summary.pdf

 

[ronandannette]

I’m actually surprised at how many people my age got very sick from COViD. My county has the worst stats in my state. https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/documents/topics/NCOV/COVID_Confirmed_Case_Summary.pdf

Am I reading that chart correctly that over 25% of cases were hospitalized and the mortality rate was 7%? And the majority of cases are in persons aged 30-44? On the face of it, those numbers are quite different and alarming than what would be expected. Admittedly though, it's tough to make direct comparisons study-to-study when no two of them seem to measure the same things.

 

[mom2aandj]

Florida is seeing a large increase in cases as we go to Phase 2 reopening.

Aren’t they testing more? I’m not paticularly concerned with more cases overall if they are testing more overall What the positive rate is, that’s more an issue. I don’t know about Florida overall, but I watch a specific county in Northeast FL closely (at risk parent lives there) and they are not having an increase in positives as a percentage of all tests. They were at 2.7% positive and are now at 2.2%

 

[FairestOfThemAll37]

Aren’t they testing more? I’m not paticularly concerned with more cases overall if they are testing more overall What the positive rate is, that’s more an issue. I don’t know about Florida overall, but I watch a specific county in Northeast FL closely (at risk parent lives there) and they are not having an increase in positives as a percentage of all tests. They were at 2.7% positive and are now at 2.2%

Florida has been holding steady overall at 2.8% positive I believe.

I find it very frustrating that every news outlet uses that dashboard when talking about cases. I thought Orange County cases were just continuing to rise and things were getting worse and worse. But I got very confused after watching an Orange County health update stating there are 411 active cases (in a population of 1.4 million) because the dashboard and all the news sites kept saying 2,600+ cases for Orange County.

Then I finally realized that the dashboard only shows death and cases to date. It’s very hard to get an accurate picture of what is happening in your area if you’re only seeing new cases added without showing recovered.

 

[ronandannette]

Aren’t they testing more? I’m not paticularly concerned with more cases overall if they are testing more overall What the positive rate is, that’s more an issue. I don’t know about Florida overall, but I watch a specific county in Northeast FL closely (at risk parent lives there) and they are not having an increase in positives as a percentage of all tests. They were at 2.7% positive and are now at 2.2%

Our most recent stats (province-wide) are that 6,455 new tests were processed in the past 24 hours and 7 were positive. That's a 0.1% (one-tenth of one percent) positive rate. Numbers like that should be extremely reassuring but yet we're still under very tight official constraints and many people remain very concerned.

 

[jlwhitney]

Florida is seeing a large increase in cases as we go to Phase 2 reopening. These new cases can't be from the protests as it is to soon. Most likely, they are from Memorial weekend. Very concerning to see these numbers go up as they open bars, movie theaters, summer camps and all of the theme parks reopen.

I am very concerned as to what the fall will bring. I don't think we will get people to quarantine again the way we did previously. I do think we will see a large increase in fatalities due to the virus.

our precent positive is still decreasing and hospitals too. So right now Florida is still doing fine.

 

[disneychrista]

I am concerned. Most concerned that there is going to be a lot more asymptomatic people wondering around, not knowing they are spreading it to others. Some of which WILL be symptomatic and possibly hospitalized or die.

Luckily my immediate area hasn't had the huge protests like the larger cities/areas.

 

[mi*vida*loca]

I’m not very worried.

They expected a spike after Mother’s Day and we didn’t get one. They expected one after Memorial Day weekend and we’re good So far. No massive outbreak from the Ozarks beach party.

I guess we wait and see but I’m just living life with necessary precautions.

 

[NYCgrrl]

I'm sure that the virus will continually return until there is a vaccine. In my area we are still on full shutdown although it's due to lessen come this Monday.
I'll be honest, I've no true idea what that means beyond people being allowed to go back to work since I've no plans to lessen my guard. We will wear masks no matter what others do. We will stay away from crowds of all kinds.
Not that difficult.

 

[VandVsmama]

At this point, I can only control MY behavior and MY choices. And I can heavily influence the choices that my immediate family makes (spouse, kids).

Can't do much about community spread of the virus due to thousands of people in every major city all across the US getting together en masse in big groups of people, standing next to each other, not social distancing, and then going to their homes and sharing the love with all of their family members, friends, and close loved ones.

In the meantime, I hope everyone stays safe and healthy.

 

[Christine]

I’m actually surprised at how many people my age got very sick from COViD. My county has the worst stats in my state. https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/documents/topics/NCOV/COVID_Confirmed_Case_Summary.pdf

Yes, I noticed that also. As I said, this person was just spitballing it but it does kind of put it into a picture of how a spike could get buried.

For my area, I'm in a "hotspot" in Virginia and, even with that, the majority of our deaths were in nursing homes.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

I’m not very worried.

They expected a spike after Mother’s Day and we didn’t get one. They expected one after Memorial Day weekend and we’re good So far. No massive outbreak from the Ozarks beach party.

I guess we wait and see but I’m just living life with necessary precautions.

Same. We actually just opened up further into our current phase today. Our cases did rise, but our hospitalizations and deaths have remained flat, so our health director says she’s comfortable with this step. The rise in cases was expected because of our last opening, but nothing spiked. And we should be seeing spikes from Memorial Day and proms/graduation parties (not sanctioned) that were thrown and we’re not.

I’ll wait and see in the next few weeks what the protests bring, but after watching behavior here over the last month, I’m not nearly as worried as I would have been.

 

[mefordis]

I'm curious about why the protests would bring a new wave worse than the crowded beaches would

Beaches in NJ are mandating 6 ft social distancing and limiting capacity. They can't do that with protests. I'm in favor of not stopping the protests, though.

 

[kaytieeldr]

My husband, the definition of introvert, said he wouldn’t go to kings island now. I said you never go anyway! Crazy man!
We aren’t in a big hurry to go although we had talked about going to cedar point with extended family. It can wait till next year.

But now he's got an external reason!

The beaches were crowded, but it wasn't wall to wall like the protests were.

This


versus this

Most of the leople I can see in the protest picture are wearing masks.

 

[mi*vida*loca]

Beaches in NJ are mandating 6 ft social distancing and limiting capacity. They can't do that with protests. I'm in favor of not stopping the protests, though.

I’m at the beach right now in NJ. Most groups are socially distancing but the groups that are together are large. Many groups of 10+ people and they obviously don’t live in the same household. Last week we came with our friends and we were a group of 15.

 

[fly girl]

Most of the leople I can see in the protest picture are wearing masks.

They are, and that helps but as you know masks do not provide 100% protection. The best part is that they are outside.

I was listening to a Mike Olsterholm interview and he said masks to provide protection but as particles could seep out of the side it is limited -- exposure would take 6 minutes versus 3 minutes with no masks on. Obviously, protests aren't that short lived. I tried to find the interview online but was unsuccessful. It was on the Today Show last week, I will keep searching. He did say being outside was the best thing, however I don't think he implied to mean large masses of people.

 

[mefordis]

I’m at the beach right now in NJ. Most groups are socially distancing but the groups that are together are large. Many groups of 10+ people and they obviously don’t live in the same household. Last week we came with our friends and we were a group of 15.

Which beaches do you know of that allow day passes, same day (sorry, slightly off topic )

 

[mi*vida*loca]

Which beaches do you know of that allow day passes, same day (sorry, slightly off topic )

I don’t know. We only go to the free ones. Lol

 

[Keetchino]

Seems like with the protests all Covid precautions are out the window. No social distancing (in fact, getting right up in each other's faces), a lot with no masks, etc. I think it will be very hard for political leaders to continue to justify lockdowns and other measures if in a few weeks we see no real spikes.