Cases rising or dropping by you?

[ORD2KOA]

You're right. Your tightly-compressed graph shows a big drop, but I don't think that's a fair representation. I think the bar graph I posted earlier gives a much more objective view.

View attachment 513005

My point was I don't think we hit a plateau - I do think we've spiked, and if we're lucky, it'll start coming down, but who knows? Our test results take between 4 and 8 days, so I think it's hard to know what's really happening. And the increasing number of hospitalizations isn't good.

 

[anthony2k7]

My point was I don't think we hit a plateau - I do think we've spiked, and if we're lucky, it'll start coming down, but who knows? Our test results take between 4 and 8 days, so I think it's hard to know what's really happening. And the increasing number of hospitalizations isn't good.

With tests taking that long its likely an increasing number of people just aren't bothering to get tested at all.

 

[JimMIA]

My point was I don't think we hit a plateau - I do think we've spiked, and if we're lucky, it'll start coming down, but who knows? Our test results take between 4 and 8 days, so I think it's hard to know what's really happening. And the increasing number of hospitalizations isn't good.

The testing thing makes it really hard to make any sense out of the numbers unless we look at nothing shorter than about 7 day rolling averages. I don't know how it is in Orlando, but down here we have some tests coming back in two days and others taking two weeks -- so that creates a real issue if you're trying to follow trends.

We clearly have had a huge surge -- no question about that. Now it feels like it has plateaued. If you look at my chart, you see that the new cases have been pretty stable at a little less than 11,000 per day for the last two weeks.

The hopeful thing -- at least here in South Florida -- is that we have a LOT of tightening up going on. And the tightening is being enforced. I went to Publix today, and I saw absolutely nobody without a mask. Not one person -- and that's not just in the store -- it was also outside walking around, in the parking lot, etc.

It will take a week or two to show in the stats, but hopefully the numbers will start to come down significantly.

 

[TipsyTraveler]

I’ve got a one word answer that is safer than venturing out and will eliminate the need for Walmart and grocery stores:

Amazon

I tend to agree. Except that the three of us talking about Walmarts in CA don’t live that far apart (relatively).

Y’all should start hanging out.

 

[disneychrista]

Where's the physical distancing? At least six feet apart smilies.

 

[TipsyTraveler]

Where's the physical distancing? At least six feet apart smilies.

 

[ORD2KOA]

"Gloom & Doom" reporting another 12,000+ cases in Florida. Of those, 1100 are in Orange/Polk/Osceola.

Central Florida has 16% of the total cases.
In June and early July, Central Florida only had 9% of the total cases in Florida.

With 414,511 cases, there are now more reported cases in Florida than in New York.

 

[ORD2KOA]

Florida health officials on Sunday reported more than 9,000 new coronavirus cases and 77 more deaths. Positivity was reported at 11%.

Florida cases now total 423,856 and the death toll increased to 5,854.

We're only 25,000 positives behind California, but Florida has 18 million fewer residents.

 

[JimMIA]

No spike seen yet in Orange County.

South Florida was down slightly in both new cases and positivity, but one day means nothing and both numbers are still too high.

 

[HeatherC]

Article from NPR on how the virus is now “marching up the East Coast”. Not a surprise with all the summer travel but concerning because it could indicate another wave of cases in states that seemed to be able to lower their numbers.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...-atlantic-and-northeast-see-a-covid-19-reboun

 

[Searc]

"Gloom & Doom" reporting another 12,000+ cases in Florida. Of those, 1100 are in Orange/Polk/Osceola.

Central Florida has 16% of the total cases.
In June and early July, Central Florida only had 9% of the total cases in Florida.

With 414,511 cases, there are now more reported cases in Florida than in New York.

Imagine what the actual numbers are.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

Article from NPR on how the virus is now “marching up the East Coast”. Not a surprise with all the summer travel but concerning because it could indicate another wave of cases in states that seemed to be able to lower their numbers.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...-atlantic-and-northeast-see-a-covid-19-reboun

That article also points to "in-region" issues.

"Interestingly, efforts by Northern vacationers to avoid destinations in the South have only created new problems. "People made logical decisions to try to seek areas where they thought there was less transmission," Rubin says. "We saw the greatest amount of traffic on the July Fourth weekend in New Jersey shore locations as I think people looked at the South and said, 'We're going to go North.' " But Rubin says, "This is now conferring new risks to regions that weren't as impacted before."

Rubin says he's seen it firsthand. "I spent a lot of time in upstate New York, and the campsites throughout the Adirondack region are packed right now because there's nothing to do in the cities. So there's a lot of spreading out going on this summer, and that is just increasing the amount of mixing that people are doing."

It's even creating a noticeable spike in infections in certain rural areas that lie between major population centers and vacation spots. Normally such rural areas are more insulated. But "people are traveling through, and when they go to the convenience store or the gas station, that's where these infections are occurring," Rubin says. "And so we're seeing even rural areas really blow up." These include ones, he adds, "without the health care resources that are necessary to respond to this challenge."


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This is very important to keep in mind too. We need to not only highlight issues due to summer travel from people outside of a given area but also inside a given area.

 

[bjscheel]

You could say they're dropping by me. My county was at 23 cumulative cases (16 recovered) but now at 20 cumulative cases due to false positives discovered.

 

[Bella the Ball 360]

Honestly, I am not following the stats because they are flawed. My bil is a vp at a big hospital and they are reporting each time someone gets tested as one case. For example, if you test positive and then you get tested again and again they report it as 3 cases not one person testing three times. Not a lot of faith in numbers that do not make sense with what I learned in my various statistics classes. I guess it is not the numbers per se it is the method of collection. The actual statistical analysis is only as good as those putting in the data.

 

[sam_gordon]

Honestly, I am not following the stats because they are flawed. My bil is a vp at a big hospital and they are reporting each time someone gets tested as one case. For example, if you test positive and then you get tested again and again they report it as 3 cases not one person testing three times. Not a lot of faith in numbers that do not make sense with what I learned in my various statistics classes. I guess it is not the numbers per se it is the method of collection. The actual statistical analysis is only as good as those putting in the data.

Our state supposedly cuts out the duplicates.

 

[jlmarr]

Honestly, I am not following the stats because they are flawed.

I'm watching the hospitalization and ICU numbers and pretty much ignoring the case numbers. This is for Orange County CA: 687 hospitalized and 201 in the ICU. A month ago the same numbers were 467 and 179.

 

[wombat_5606]

Honestly, I am not following the stats because they are flawed. My bil is a vp at a big hospital and they are reporting each time someone gets tested as one case. For example, if you test positive and then you get tested again and again they report it as 3 cases not one person testing three times. Not a lot of faith in numbers that do not make sense with what I learned in my various statistics classes. I guess it is not the numbers per se it is the method of collection. The actual statistical analysis is only as good as those putting in the data.

The definitions count too. In Florida, you are only counted in their hospitalization count if your primary diagnosis is Covid. If you enter the hospital with, for example, a stroke and during intake they discover you actually have Covid, that patient isn't counted as being hospitalized with Covid.

Death rate in Florida is only counted if the county medical examiner lists it as the primary reason. This is not the direction of the CDC.

I'm watching the hospitalization and ICU numbers and pretty much ignoring the case numbers.

May or may not be correct. See this post.

 

[jlmarr]

May or may not be correct. See this post.

Yeah, the reporting rules might have changed since HHS, now headed by a political appointee, took over the statistics reporting. My two web sources indicate things are unstable:

Due to changes in Health and Human Services reporting requirements, this site may display broken metrics or odd behavior over the next few days while things get sorted out.

 

[RamblingMad]

We have -1 death today in AZ. Looks like the strain has mutated to create zombies. We knew it was only a matter of time.

 

[JimMIA]

Honestly, I am not following the stats because they are flawed. My bil is a vp at a big hospital and they are reporting each time someone gets tested as one case. For example, if you test positive and then you get tested again and again they report it as 3 cases not one person testing three times. Not a lot of faith in numbers that do not make sense with what I learned in my various statistics classes. I guess it is not the numbers per se it is the method of collection. The actual statistical analysis is only as good as those putting in the data.

Seems to me they are reporting the tests properly, but that's not the end result. A test is a test, and a result is a result -- but the important thing is how those legitimate reports are evaluated.

The new case data I read specifically notes that repeat positives are not counted at all. Neither the positive nor the test itself is counted because they are basically old news. The new cases reported are just that -- NEW cases.