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Cases rising or dropping by you?

Really? Okay, I'll bite, a written list of things you want your spouse (your honey) to do.

Seriously? Right now, she wants to escape to Hawaii, but given their quarantine, that's not happening.

We're more travelers than buyers of stuff, so maybe that's why I don't have one. It's all about where we want to go next. Unfortunately, with COVID, we're trapped with each other watching way too much Netflix and pointing out where stuff looks like it was filmed.
 
Florida:

12,444 new cases reported - positivity rate is over 13% - more than 400,000 infections statewide
(New cases around WDW: 698 in Orange, 364 in Polk, 306 in Osceola)
135 more people lost their lives (total more than 5,600)
9,253 people are currently hospitalized
581 new hospitalizations - broke the one day record
 
Florida:

12,444 new cases reported - positivity rate is over 13% - more than 400,000 infections statewide
(New cases around WDW: 698 in Orange, 364 in Polk, 306 in Osceola)
135 more people lost their lives (total more than 5,600)
9,253 people are currently hospitalized
581 new hospitalizations - broke the one day record
700 or a little higher has been sort of the Orange County average, although their test reports bounce around so much it's kind of hard to tell. Orange must have 2-3 big labs, and when they report the numbers jump up.

Here in Miami, we had 3,362 new cases and the positivity jumped back up to 19.7% after being a little lower for a couple of days. 19% is about our average positivity since the cases started surging. (prior to the surge, we had one week where it was less than 5%)

We have a lot of new curfews (8 PM on South Beach, if you can imagine that!), restrictions, and enforcement, so we'll have to see how that affects things.
 


The most important thing to me is exactly what you said -- plateauing is NOT moving in the wrong direction. We don't want to stay here for long, but level is better than UP.

I'm not sure there are precise metrics, but looking at a bar graph of the last 30 days, you can see a plateauing in Florida. I apologize for the lines, but I am certainly not a mouse artist!

On the left half of the chart, the red line reflects the higher days, ignoring the highest. The blue line reflects the lower days, ignoring the lowest. In both, you see a clear upward trend.

The green line shows sort of the average daily new cases for the last 12 days (roughly 11,000), ignoring the highs and lows -- and you can see that it's as level as I'm able to draw it.

For reference, July 16 was 11,261 new cases, and July 14, 17, 19, and 22 were all just over 10,000 new cases.

View attachment 512949

I don't see a plateau in Florida if you look at it week-to-week:

513003
 
And my point....once again.......is, if you have a Super Walmart with groceries, why should you make trips to different stores since each different store you go into increases your risk of exposure.
I have never said that you should go to multiple stores. That is kind of the point I am making. Grocery stores have all the items deemed essentials. There is no need for Walmarts & Targets to be open. But unlike you I do not think that we actually should close "nonessential" retail stores as they do not pose any more of a threat to transmission than those deemed "essential."

We can go back and forth all day (and tomorrow too) if you'd like.
 


I have never said that you should go to multiple stores. That is kind of the point I am making. Grocery stores have all the items deemed essentials. There is no need for Walmarts & Targets to be open. But unlike you I do not think that we actually should close "nonessential" retail stores as they do not pose any more of a threat to transmission than those deemed "essential."

We can go back and forth all day (and tomorrow too) if you'd like.
I never said anything about what should be open, just that for most folks, places like Walmart and Target offer all the essential items most folks need.
 
I never said anything about what should be open, just that for most folks, places like Walmart and Target offer all the essential items most folks need.
You did though. The way this conversation even started is you saying that you don't see anyway but a complete SIP for CA again, which would be only essential businesses open. @disneychrista and I don't believe that's what will happen and while I don't want to speak for her, I understand what she's been saying to mean that we now know there isn't any different risk factor between stores deemed essential or non-essential. And while your Walmart may sell groceries, it sells a lot more that falls into non-essential. So if we're really going back to into a full SIP, then only truly "essential" business should be allowed to be open. It doesn't matter if some also sell essential things, they shouldn't qualify if they also sell non-essential. Or we don't do a full SIP and continue with closing sectors on risk bases, which is exactly what that the state has been doing and IMO, will continue to do.
 
You did though. The way this conversation even started is you saying that you don't see anyway but a complete SIP for CA again, which would be only essential businesses open. @disneychrista and I don't believe that's what will happen and while I don't want to speak for her, I understand what she's been saying to mean that we now know there isn't any different risk factor between stores deemed essential or non-essential. And while your Walmart may sell groceries, it sells a lot more that falls into non-essential. So if we're really going back to into a full SIP, then only truly "essential" business should be allowed to be open. It doesn't matter if some also sell essential things, they shouldn't qualify if they also sell non-essential. Or we don't do a full SIP and continue with closing sectors on risk bases, which is exactly what that the state has been doing and IMO, will continue to do.
Exactly.
 
You did though. The way this conversation even started is you saying that you don't see anyway but a complete SIP for CA again, which would be only essential businesses open. @disneychrista and I don't believe that's what will happen and while I don't want to speak for her, I understand what she's been saying to mean that we now know there isn't any different risk factor between stores deemed essential or non-essential. And while your Walmart may sell groceries, it sells a lot more that falls into non-essential. So if we're really going back to into a full SIP, then only truly "essential" business should be allowed to be open. It doesn't matter if some also sell essential things, they shouldn't qualify if they also sell non-essential. Or we don't do a full SIP and continue with closing sectors on risk bases, which is exactly what that the state has been doing and IMO, will continue to do.
IMHO you are splitting hairs on Walmart and Target selling other items. And 56% of Walmarts business is in the grocery department, so THAT is their majority business these days. It appears only 20% of Target's business is in groceries.

I think we will know within a week if SIP will return. Given that ICUs in many parts of California are over capacity, and more people are hospitalized now that ever before, I don't think the state has any choice. Things are worse than they were the first time SIP was invoked.
 
The graphic should have gone from 1 to double that = 2 million, then from 2 to double that = 4 million. The way it is written is an attempt at manipulating an audience.
It is what it is.

If you want it your way then 1 to 2 mil was 43 days and then that doubled again in coincidentally 43 days for 2 to 4 mil. So maybe in another 43 days it will be at 8 mil.
 
IMHO you are splitting hairs on Walmart and Target selling other items. And 56% of Walmarts business is in the grocery department, so THAT is their majority business these days. It appears only 20% of Target's business is in groceries.

I think we will know within a week if SIP will return. Given that ICUs in many parts of California are over capacity, and more people are hospitalized now that ever before, I don't think the state has any choice. Things are worse than they were the first time SIP was invoked.
This move seems to go against the idea of a statewide SIP. Why allow districts to go through this work just to tell them the entire state is closing down?

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news...24-20-intl/h_e0050376dbf3a5afee1c7046d74f75d2
 
From the Orange County CA site:

513035

I had thought that local hospitals reported directly to the state, and county would get its numbers from there. Not sure what the situation is as of today.

... and the link I had directly to the state data no longer works. Hmm...
 
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I can't speak to that. My kids are grown and my County has ordered schools to stay closed. Have you seen any districts that actually have applied for a waiver?
Since it was just approved today, no. This is for schools in counties that were told they had to do 100% remote learning. But I have seen articles in the LA Times about schools in LA County, the hardest hit county in the state, thinking of applying for it.

But it doesn't really matter if any school applies for it. It goes to my point that the Gov would not even be offering the ability to apply if he was going to turn around a put the state under a full SIP next week. He also wouldn't have allowed salons and the like to go to outside services in "watch" counties this week if he's planning on just shutting everything down again.
 
Since it was just approved today, no. This is for schools in counties that were told they had to do 100% remote learning. But I have seen articles in the LA Times about schools in LA County, the hardest hit county in the state, thinking of applying for it.

But it doesn't really matter if any school applies for it. It goes to my point that the Gov would not even be offering the ability to apply if he was going to turn around a put the state under a full SIP next week. He also wouldn't have allowed salons and the like to go to outside services in "watch" counties this week if he's planning on just shutting everything down again.
We should know soon.
 

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