MamaLema
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- May 17, 2004
To add to this Canada has 4
So update at 9:30 PM on Johns Hopkins website:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
9,776 confirmed cases
213 deaths (204 are in Wuhan itself)
187 recovered.
NO deaths outside of China so far.
The recovery number is probably the most important number here. The fatality rate seems to be fairly steady between 2-4% (similar to the 1918 Spanish influenza) thus far as the cases grow, BUT the recovery rate listed above means there’s still a big unknown in the survival rate. Either this has a lengthy but fairly sure recovery period that hasn’t been shown yet because were so early and people will be sick for a few weeks and then fine OR those in hospital will have a lengthy but potentially more fatal outcome which would mean the fatality rate is lagging but much higher.
(Disclaimer- keep in mind the fatality rate can only be calculated at this time from people that are severe enough to seek treatment. There could be (and I believe the CDC models are showing) that they actual # of cases is much higher but only 25% of cases become severe. Those sick at home with milder cases aren’t in these numbers- BUT they are still capable of spreading it).
Kept in raw number perspective this is small, but the spread is fast enough that governments are quarantining on a massive scale and the US is shutting down borders to non-citizens who hav been in the affected region. This is moving very fast for a new infectious disease (in comparison the Ebola virus and SARS were almost glacial), and government actions seems very reactionary and outsized for the relative small numbers.
Update to my earlier post: test results came back negative so that's good news .There is a possible case in my state now--in my alma mater's town located approximately 30mins from me. Person just travelled from Wuhan but test results won't likely be available til later in the week. Presently the hospital where the patient is at is still open but the patient is being isolated.