I think the "higher bonus" concept is something that we all need to take a harder look at now because the avenues to continue to move from sign-up to sign-up are slowing. All of these application rules with Chase, Citi, BofA, are taking their toll. Slowing your pace of applications is a fairly new concept.
Just for some perspective on my history with churning (all 2 player):
- 2011 we did 2 new cards
- 2014 we started really focusing on this hobby and did 3 new cards,
- 2015 we did 14 new cards
- 2016 we did 29 new cards
- 2017 we did 13 new cards - really started slowing the pace as I focused on higher spend bonuses
- 2018 we are targeting < 8 cards to keep Chase happy
So we are just now starting to slow our pace to keep in good graces!
There is however a point at which a higher bonus starts to wane for me. That 120k Marriott offer (if I were eligible) only comes out to a 7-8% return and I really don't like to hit a signup bonus for less than 15% personally. Ultimately though I think we all need to evaluate how many cards you can reasonably get in a year - the days of 29 cards in a year don't exist anymore. It seems in 2 player mode that 7-10 cards is a much more likely target (and obviously half of that in single player). If you can manage a lot of organic spend (or like to MS) the higher signups can make a lot of sense. For others, a $5k min. spend will take every bit of 3 months and maybe they even prepay some stuff on the back-end. Anything higher than that is gonna get scary for those folks and they still may enjoy a simple $500 or $1,000 spend every so often.
I guess I say all of this to continue to reiterate the point that
a Plan or Strategy is key in this game. Those that will continue to succeed will plan out at least 9 months and more likely 18-24 months. Of course you need to be willing to adapt if an unexpected offer comes up but having that plan will keep you from making short-sighted mistakes.